This Stock is up 120% in the Last Month – Is it a  Buy?

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Written By Saad Sarfaraz

In the world of stock investments, Jumia Technologies AG (NYSE: JMIA) has emerged as a beacon of optimism for its shareholders. 

The company’s stock price has experienced an impressive ascent, soaring by 120% in the past month alone. This surge culminates in an annual increase of 125%, a development that has undoubtedly captured the attention of the investment community.

Evaluating Jumia’s Market Valuation

Amid this exhilarating rise, Jumia Technologies finds itself at a crossroads when compared to its peers in the Multiline Retail industry within the United States. 

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With a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 3.8x, Jumia stands out in an industry where many companies boast a P/S below 1x. This discrepancy raises a question: is the high valuation of Jumia’s stock justified, or is it a mere speculative bubble waiting to burst?

A Closer Look at Revenue Trends

A pivotal aspect of Jumia Technologies’ current valuation is its recent revenue performance. Contrary to the positive revenue growth observed across much of the industry, Jumia’s revenue trajectory has been on a decline. 

This situation posits a significant challenge, as it suggests a divergence from the positive momentum seen elsewhere. The critical consideration here is whether this dip in revenue is a temporary setback or a harbinger of more profound challenges ahead.

Despite the downturn, the company’s revenue has seen a cumulative increase of 17% over the past three years, hinting at an underlying resilience and potential for recovery. 

This backdrop provides a nuanced perspective on the company’s valuation, suggesting that the elevated P/S ratio may reflect investors’ expectations of a robust turnaround in Jumia’s financial fortunes.

Future Revenue Projections and Industry Comparison

Looking ahead, projections indicate a modest annual revenue growth of 4.4% for Jumia over the next three years. This forecast stands in stark contrast to the more optimistic 13% annual growth rate anticipated for the broader industry. 

This disparity underscores the challenges Jumia faces in matching industry growth rates, thereby casting shadows on the sustainability of its current market valuation.

Investor Sentiment vs. Market Realities

The prevailing high P/S ratio of Jumia Technologies is indicative of a bullish sentiment among its investors. This optimism, however, appears to be misaligned with the more cautious outlook presented by analysts. 

The discrepancy between investor expectations and analytical forecasts suggests that Jumia’s stock may be overvalued, with its current price levels potentially unsustainable in the face of projected revenue growth rates.

Navigating the Waters of Valuation and Growth

Jumia Technologies remarkable stock price rally reflects a mix of investor optimism and market speculation. While the company’s historical revenue growth and potential for future expansion provide some justification for its valuation, the comparison with industry growth rates and the current P/S ratio raises valid concerns. 

Credit: DepositPhotos

Investors and potential shareholders must tread carefully, balancing the allure of recent gains with the realistic prospects of future growth. As Jumia navigates its path forward, the interplay between valuation, revenue performance, and investor sentiment will be crucial in determining its long-term market position.


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