Blue Bird Corp Shares Have Surged Over 100% This Year: Is It Too Late to Buy?

Photo of author
Written By Kris Enyinnaya

Blue Bird Corporation is a prominent producer and seller of school buses and related parts, including alternative-powered products such as those fueled by propane, gasoline, and electric power.

Despite the challenges facing the electric vehicle sector, Blue Bird has demonstrated strong performance, significantly boosting its share price and financial outlook.

Recent Performance

Credits: DepositPhotos

Blue Bird has shown remarkable growth, with its second-quarter revenue totaling $345.9 million, marking a 15.4% increase from the previous year. The Bus segment was particularly strong, with revenue rising 16.3% from $273.5 million to roughly $318 million, driven by an 18.8% increase in sales price per unit.

This growth occurred even as the number of units sold fell by 2.2%, highlighting the effectiveness of price adjustments and changes in product and customer mix.

The company’s profitability also saw significant improvements. Net income increased from $7.1 million to $26 million, while operating cash flow more than doubled from $24.8 million to $54.6 million.

Adjusted operating cash flow nearly tripled, reaching $31.1 million, and EBITDA expanded from $21.1 million to $45.8 million.

Guidance and Long-Term Outlook

Encouraged by its strong performance, Blue Bird raised its revenue guidance for the fiscal year. The company now anticipates sales between $1.275 billion and $1.325 billion, up from the previously forecasted $1.15 billion to $1.25 billion.

This represents an 8.3% increase at the midpoint compared to prior guidance and a 14.8% increase over the $1.13 billion generated in 2023. EBITDA is expected to be between $145 million and $165 million, significantly higher than the prior range of $120 million to $140 million.

Looking further ahead, Blue Bird expects to produce around 8,800 buses this year, up from 8,514 in 2023, including approximately 800 fully electric buses. The company projects long-term production to grow to between 11,000 and 12,000 buses annually, with 4,000 to 5,000 of these being electric.

This should lead to substantial revenue growth, with long-term projections of $1.85 billion to $2 billion annually and EBITDA margins increasing to 13.5% to 14%.

Investments and Industry Dynamics

Blue Bird is making significant investments in its business transformation. The company plans to allocate around $240 million in funds this year, based on projected operating cash flow of $158 million.

These funds will be used for research and development, capital expenditures, joint venture investments, share repurchases, boosting cash reserves, and paying down debt.

The broader industry dynamics also favor Blue Bird. During the COVID-19 pandemic, investments in school buses were slashed, but demand is expected to rebound. Approximately 43% of the school bus fleet in North America is 10 years old or older, with some buses being 35 years old.

The number of school buses sold plummeted from 36,100 in 2019 to 25,700 in 2022. This year, the industry is expected to see 33,000 new buses, with projections reaching about 40,500 by 2029.

Government investments in vehicle electrification are also set to benefit Blue Bird. Significant funding across various programs is anticipated, with management estimating that Blue Bird could capture around 30% of these orders, translating to roughly $649.5 million in revenue spread over time.


The current valuation reflects the market’s recognition of Blue Bird’s potential. The stock trades at reasonable multiples based on historical results and forward estimates. While not as undervalued as before, the company remains a solid investment with strong growth prospects.


Credits: DepositPhotos

Blue Bird Corporation has demonstrated robust financial performance and has a promising outlook, supported by substantial investments and favorable industry dynamics.

While the stock’s recent appreciation suggests a more modest upside in the near term, the company’s long-term growth potential remains strong.



You should read and understand this disclaimer in its entirety before joining or viewing the website or email/blog list of (the “Publisher”). The information (collectively the “Advertisement”) disseminated by email, text or other method by the Publisher including this publication is a paid commercial advertisement and should not be relied upon for making an investment decision or any other purpose. The Publisher is engaged in the business of marketing and advertising the securities of publicly traded companies in exchange for compensation. The track record, gains, upside, and/or losses mentioned in the Advertisement, if any, should not be considered as true or accurate or be the basis for an investment. The Publisher does not verify the accuracy or completeness of any information included in the Advertisement. While the Publisher does not charge for the SMS service, standard carrier message and data rates may apply. To unsubscribe from receiving promotional text messages to your phone sent via an autodialer, using your phone reply to the sender’s phone number with the word STOP or HELP for help.

The Advertisement is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy securities of the advertised company. An offer to buy or sell securities can be made only by a disclosure document that complies with applicable securities laws and only in the states or other jurisdictions in which the security is eligible for sale. The Advertisement is not a disclosure document. The Advertisement is only a favorable snapshot of unverified information about the advertised company. An investor considering purchasing the securities, should always do so only with the assistance of his legal, tax and investment advisors. Investors should review with his or her investment advisor, tax advisor or attorney, if and to the extent available, any information concerning a potential investment at the web sites of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") at; the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (the "FINRA") at, and relevant State Securities Administrator website and the OTC Markets website at The Publisher cautions investors to read the SEC advisory to investors concerning Internet Stock Fraud at, as well as related information published by the FINRA on how to invest carefully. Investors are responsible for verifying all information in the Advertisement. As an advertiser, we do not verify any information we publish. The Advertisement should not be considered true or complete.

The Publisher does not offer investment advice or analysis, and the Publisher further urges you to consult your own independent tax, business, financial and investment advisors concerning any investment you make in securities particularly those quoted on the OTC Markets. Investing in securities is highly speculative and carries an extremely high degree of risk. You could lose your entire investment if you invest in any company mentioned in the Advertisement. You acknowledge that we are not an investment advisory service, a broker-dealer or an investment adviser and we are not qualified to act as such. You acknowledge that you will consult with your own independent, tax, financial and/or legal advisers regarding any decisions as to any company mentioned here. We have not determined if the Advertisement is accurate, correct or truthful. The Advertisement is compiled from publicly available information, which include, but are not limited to, no cost online research, magazines, newspapers, reports filed with the SEC or information furnished by way of press releases. Because all information relied upon by us in preparing an advertisement about an issuer comes from a public source, it is not reliable, and you should not assume it is accurate or complete.

By your subscription to our profiles, the viewing of this profile and/or use of our website, you have agreed and acknowledged the terms of our full disclaimer and privacy policy which can be viewed at the following link: and

By accepting the Advertisement, you agree and acknowledge that any hyperlinks to the website of (1) a client company, (2) the party issuing or preparing the information for the company, or (3) other information contained in the Advertisement is provided only for your reference and convenience. The advertiser is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of these external sites, nor is it responsible for the content, opinions, products or other materials on external sites or information sources. If you use, act upon or make decisions in reliance on information contained in any disseminated report/release or any hyperlink, you do so at your own risk and agree to hold us, our officers, directors, shareholders, affiliates and agents harmless. You acknowledge that you are not relying on the Publisher, and we are not liable for, any actions taken by you based on any information contained in any disseminated email or hyperlink.